Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -2.5pts: 37¢ at window start → 34¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 36¢ (band 36¢–57¢)
  band from 165 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 3.3× this market's 7-day norm, $9.5k in 24h
  volume from the 14:24 UTC snapshot (no close reading)
• BOOK Book 3.2:1 bid, $4.3k/$1.3k within 10¢
  depth from the 13:36 UTC snapshot (no close reading)
• TIMING First reprice T+24m
• WIRE Wire: @Polymarket T−24m, link confidence 80%: "JUST IN: Iran is reportedly seeking fees of up to 7% of cargo value from ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz."

DEPTH PENDING · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 06 Aug 2026, 12:59 UTC: Band breach (lower): 37¢ → 36¢ (-1.0pts), confirmed over 233s

Context artifact

@Polymarket · X: posted 24 min before the break

JUST IN: Iran is reportedly seeking fees of up to 7% of cargo value from ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

View the post

Shown as timing context from the sources TruthPing watches. Its appearance near the move is an observation, not an explanation.

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.05× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 2 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 35¢, drift +0.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 35¢, held +1.5ptspts
• Peak move: +3.0pts
• Held 83% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: no data
• Price at close: 34¢
• Graded from 34 snapshots