Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +1.0pts: 37¢ at window start → 38¢ at close
• VOLUME 3.0× this market's 7-day norm, $11.2k in 24h
• BOOK Book 14.0:1 bid, $4.9k/$349 within 10¢

Book 14.0:1 bid, $4.9k/$349 within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 06 Aug 2026, 15:36 UTC: Band breach (lower): 37¢ → 36¢ (-1.5pts), confirmed over 210s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.07× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 0 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +30m: 44¢, held -6.5ptspts
• Peak move: +1.5pts
• Held 0% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 38¢
• Graded from 8 snapshots