Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -0.9pts: 4¢ at window start → 3¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 3¢ (band 3¢–9¢)
  band from 167 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 1.1:1 bid, $5.0k/$4.7k within 10¢
  depth from the 13:13 UTC snapshot (no close reading)
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $1.9k, 1.2× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 1,200 trades / 7d
• VOLUME 0.6× this market's 7-day norm, $98.7k in 24h

DEPTH PENDING · spread 0.1¢

Triggers (1)

• 06 Aug 2026, 11:46 UTC: Band breach (lower): 4¢ → 2¢ (-1.8pts), confirmed over 98s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.35× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 7 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 2¢, drift +0.1pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 3¢, held +1.4ptspts
• Peak move: +1.9pts
• Held 46% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 3¢
• Graded from 43 snapshots