Wisconsin Democratic Governor nominee?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -7.7pts: 93¢ at window start → 86¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 92¢ (band 92¢–96¢)
  band from 167 hourly obs / 6.9d
• VOLUME 3.1× this market's 7-day norm, $115.7k in 24h
• BOOK Book 10.6:1 ask, $7.9k/$83.4k within 10¢
  depth from the 03:01 UTC snapshot (no close reading)
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $3.4k, 7.1× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 2,470 trades / 7d

DEPTH PENDING · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (2)

• 05 Aug 2026, 01:39 UTC: Band breach (lower): 93¢ → 91¢ (-1.9pts), confirmed over 296s
• 05 Aug 2026, 02:05 UTC: Sustained reprice: 91¢ → 86¢ (-5.8pts), confirmed over 115s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.47× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 208 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 92¢, drift -0.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 85¢, held +8.7ptspts
• Peak move: +10.7pts
• Held 72% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 86¢
• Graded from 45 snapshots