Wisconsin Democratic Governor nominee?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +5.0pts: 78¢ at window start → 83¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 94¢ (band 94¢–97¢)
  band from 166 hourly obs / 6.9d
• VOLUME 3.4× this market's 7-day norm, $128.4k in 24h
• BOOK Book 3.2:1 ask, $7.5k/$24.3k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $3.8k, 8.1× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 3,256 trades / 7d

Book 3.2:1 ask, $7.5k/$24.3k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (3)

• 05 Aug 2026, 03:44 UTC: Sustained reprice: 78¢ → 82¢ (+4.0pts), confirmed over 60s
• 05 Aug 2026, 04:15 UTC: Sustained reprice: 82¢ → 86¢ (+4.0pts), confirmed over 61s
• 05 Aug 2026, 04:53 UTC: Sustained reprice: 86¢ → 83¢ (-3.0pts), confirmed over 63s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 1× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 119 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 81¢, drift -1.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 86¢, held +8.0ptspts
• Peak move: +8.0pts
• Held 62% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 83¢
• Graded from 59 snapshots