Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?
Window 05 Aug 2026, 17:42 UTC → 05 Aug 2026, 19:12 UTC
Price at window start 61¢ → at trigger 57¢
YES down · NO up
Resolves 28 Oct 2026, 23:59 UTC
Live payload
REPRICED Repriced -3.5pts: 61¢ at window start → 57¢ now
OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 63¢ (band 63¢–69¢) band from 166 hourly obs / 7.0d
BOOK Book 4.0:1 ask, $998/$4.0k within 10¢
TIMING First reprice T+1064m
WIRE Wire: @WatcherGuru T−291m, link confidence 92%: "JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Fed's Kashkari says he believes now is the time to start slowly raising interest rates."
WIRE Wire: @DeItaone T−149m, link confidence 92%: "KASHKARI CALLS FOR IMMEDIATE RATE HIKES
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said the Fed should begin raising in…"
VOLUME 0.9× this market's 7-day norm, $2.6k in 24h
Triggers (1)
05 Aug 2026, 17:42 UTC: Sustained reprice: 61¢ → 57¢ (-3.5pts), confirmed over 136s
Context
Opening move ≈ 0.54× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time