Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -2.4pts: 27¢ at window start → 25¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 26¢ (band 26¢–33¢)
  band from 169 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 56.6:1 ask, $246/$13.9k within 10¢
  depth from the 20:01 UTC snapshot (no close reading)
• VOLUME 0.6× this market's 7-day norm, $4.3k in 24h
  volume from the 19:59 UTC snapshot (no close reading)

DEPTH PENDING · spread 0.1¢

Triggers (1)

• 05 Aug 2026, 18:47 UTC: Band breach (lower): 27¢ → 25¢ (-2.4pts), confirmed over 145s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.31× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 1 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 25¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 25¢, held +2.4ptspts
• Peak move: +2.4pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 25¢
• Graded from 64 snapshots