Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +3.0pts: 85¢ at window start → 88¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 81¢ (band 78¢–81¢)
  band from 164 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 3.5× this market's 7-day norm, $3.2k in 24h
• BOOK Book 12.9:1 ask, $4.4k/$57.0k within 10¢

Book 12.9:1 ask, $4.4k/$57.0k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 05 Aug 2026, 13:18 UTC: Sustained reprice: 85¢ → 88¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 69s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 1× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 0 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 88¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 88¢, held +3.0ptspts
• Peak move: +3.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 88¢
• Graded from 55 snapshots