REPRICED
FINALISED: FROZEN
Polymarket
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?
Window 05 Aug 2026, 05:37 UTC → 05 Aug 2026, 07:07 UTC
Price at window start 96¢ → at trigger 92¢ → at close 100¢
YES down · NO up
Frozen payload
- REPRICED Repriced +3.9pts: 96¢ at window start → 100¢ at close
- OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 98¢ (band 85¢–98¢)
band from 164 hourly obs / 6.9d
- VOLUME 46.2× this market's 7-day norm, $1.4M in 24h
- BOOK Book 2.7:1 ask, $79.5k/$217.7k within 10¢
- TIMING First reprice T+415m
- UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $74.5k, 107.9× this market's typical big trade
size baseline: 95th pct of 2,968 trades / 7d
- WIRE Wire: @Polymarket T−415m, link confidence 92%: "BREAKING: Polymarket.com projects Abdul El-Sayed has defeated Haley Stevens in Michigan's Democratic Senate primary …"
Book 2.7:1 ask, $79.5k/$217.7k within 10¢ · spread 0.1¢
Triggers (3)
- 05 Aug 2026, 05:37 UTC: Sustained reprice: 96¢ → 92¢ (-3.9pts), confirmed over 30s
- 05 Aug 2026, 05:54 UTC: Sustained reprice: 92¢ → 97¢ (+5.1pts), confirmed over 90s
- 05 Aug 2026, 05:59 UTC: Band breach (upper): 97¢ → 100¢ (+2.4pts), confirmed over 60s
Context
- Opening move ≈ 0.28× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
- 187 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)
Outcome: graded at window close
- +2m after alert: 91¢, drift +0.5pts in the alert direction
- +30m: 100¢, held -4.0ptspts
- Peak move: +4.5pts
- Held 0% of the peak move at close
- Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
- Gave back half within 60m: yes
- Price at close: 100¢
- Graded from 58 snapshots