Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -13.4pts: 98¢ at window start → 84¢ at close
• VOLUME 10.9× this market's 7-day norm, $315.6k in 24h
  volume from the 03:01 UTC snapshot (no close reading)
• BOOK Book 2.7:1 ask, $17.8k/$48.8k within 10¢
  depth from the 03:01 UTC snapshot (no close reading)
• TIMING First reprice T+267m
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $13.7k, 43.1× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 1,931 trades / 7d
• WIRE Wire: @Polymarket T−267m, link confidence 90%: "BREAKING: Abdul Sayed is a near-lock to win Michigan's Democratic Senate primary, with polls set to close in under 4 …"

DEPTH PENDING · spread 0.5¢

Triggers (6)

• 05 Aug 2026, 01:39 UTC: Band breach (upper): 98¢ → 98¢ (+0.6pts), confirmed over 296s
• 05 Aug 2026, 02:03 UTC: Sustained reprice: 98¢ → 92¢ (-6.7pts), confirmed over 323s
• 05 Aug 2026, 02:25 UTC: Sustained reprice: 92¢ → 85¢ (-6.6pts), confirmed over 57s
• 05 Aug 2026, 02:28 UTC: Band breach (lower): 85¢ → 83¢ (-2.0pts), confirmed over 60s
• 05 Aug 2026, 02:33 UTC: Sustained reprice: 83¢ → 94¢ (+11.2pts), confirmed over 56s
• 05 Aug 2026, 02:54 UTC: Sustained reprice: 94¢ → 87¢ (-7.5pts), confirmed over 316s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.04× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 245 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 98¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 91¢, held -6.3ptspts
• Peak move: +0.6pts
• Held 0% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 84¢
• Graded from 47 snapshots