Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +22.7pts: 75¢ at window start → 98¢ at close
• VOLUME 17.2× this market's 7-day norm, $514.7k in 24h
• BOOK Book 2.5:1 ask, $47.0k/$118.5k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $9.7k, 18.4× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 2,595 trades / 7d

Book 2.5:1 ask, $47.0k/$118.5k within 10¢ · spread 0.1¢

Triggers (4)

• 05 Aug 2026, 03:37 UTC: Sustained reprice: 75¢ → 92¢ (+16.6pts), confirmed over 30s
• 05 Aug 2026, 03:42 UTC: Sustained reprice: 92¢ → 88¢ (-4.3pts), confirmed over 60s
• 05 Aug 2026, 03:53 UTC: Sustained reprice: 88¢ → 96¢ (+8.9pts), confirmed over 151s
• 05 Aug 2026, 04:34 UTC: Band breach (upper): 96¢ → 99¢ (+2.2pts), confirmed over 75s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 1.13× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 160 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 87¢, drift -5.1pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 97¢, held +22.2ptspts
• Peak move: +23.5pts
• Held 97% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: no data
• Price at close: 98¢
• Graded from 60 snapshots