REPRICED
WINDOW OPEN: LIVE
Polymarket
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
Window 05 Aug 2026, 02:10 UTC → 05 Aug 2026, 03:40 UTC
Price at window start 74¢ → at trigger 80¢
YES up · NO down
Live payload
- REPRICED Repriced +6.0pts: 74¢ at window start → 80¢ now
- OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 61¢ (band 9¢–61¢)
band from 155 hourly obs / 7.0d
- BOOK Book 1.2:1 ask, $28.1k/$32.3k within 10¢
- UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $1.2k, 1.7× this market's typical big trade
size baseline: 95th pct of 9,011 trades / 7d
Triggers (1)
- 05 Aug 2026, 02:10 UTC: Sustained reprice: 74¢ → 80¢ (+6.0pts), confirmed over 60s
Context
- Opening move ≈ 0.12× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time