OUTSIDE BAND FINALISED: FROZEN Polymarket

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?

Window 05 Aug 2026, 20:47 UTC → 05 Aug 2026, 22:17 UTC

Price at window start 51¢ → at trigger 54¢ → at close 55¢

YES up · NO down

Resolves 31 Aug 2026, 23:59 UTC

Frozen payload

REPRICED Repriced +4.0pts: 51¢ at window start → 55¢ at close
OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 53¢ (band 32¢–53¢)
band from 157 hourly obs / 6.9d
BOOK Book 1.1:1 bid, $3.4k/$3.0k within 10¢
VOLUME 0.8× this market's 7-day norm, $20.8k in 24h

Book 1.1:1 bid, $3.4k/$3.0k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

05 Aug 2026, 20:47 UTC: Band breach (upper): 51¢ → 54¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 230s

Context artifact

@FirstSquawk · X: posted 2 min before the break

THE RENEWED ATTACKS COME DESPITE ONGOING U.S.-IRAN DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS TO EASE REGIONAL TENSIONS, AND WHILE TRUMP SAID RECENT TALKS WERE POSITIVE, THE ESCALATING HOUTHI CAMPAIGN HIGHLIGHTS THE CONTINUED THREAT TO GLOBAL ENERGY SUPPLIES AND MARITIME TRADE, KEEPING GEOPOLITICAL RISKS ELEVATED ACROSS THE MIDDLE EAST.

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Shown as timing context from the sources TruthPing watches. Its appearance near the move is an observation, not an explanation.

Context

Opening move ≈ 0.14× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
4 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

+30m: 55¢, held +3.5ptspts
Peak move: +4.5pts
Held 89% of the peak move at close
Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
Gave back half within 60m: no
Price at close: 55¢
Graded from 33 snapshots