US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -4.5pts: 55¢ at window start → 51¢ at close
• BOOK Book 1.5:1 bid, $3.0k/$2.0k within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.9× this market's 7-day norm, $22.5k in 24h

Book 1.5:1 bid, $3.0k/$2.0k within 10¢ · spread 3.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 05 Aug 2026, 13:29 UTC: Sustained reprice: 55¢ → 51¢ (-4.0pts), confirmed over 60s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.2× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 3 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 51¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 50¢, held +5.0ptspts
• Peak move: +5.5pts
• Held 82% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 51¢
• Graded from 53 snapshots