US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +1.0pts: 36¢ at window start → 37¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 36¢ (band 28¢–36¢)
  band from 166 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 1.7× this market's 7-day norm, $50.7k in 24h
• BOOK Book 2.4:1 ask, $20.8k/$49.1k within 10¢

Book 2.4:1 ask, $20.8k/$49.1k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 05 Aug 2026, 07:36 UTC: Band breach (upper): 36¢ → 37¢ (+1.0pts), confirmed over 53s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.14× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 4 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 37¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 37¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 37¢
• Graded from 63 snapshots