REPRICED WINDOW OPEN: LIVE Polymarket

US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?

Window 05 Aug 2026, 02:05 UTC → 05 Aug 2026, 03:35 UTC

Price at window start 64¢ → at trigger 69¢

YES up · NO down

Resolves 15 Aug 2026, 23:59 UTC

Live payload

REPRICED Repriced +3.5pts: 64¢ at window start → 67¢ now
OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 47¢ (band 15¢–47¢)
band from 163 hourly obs / 7.0d
VOLUME 2.5× this market's 7-day norm, $127.5k in 24h
BOOK Book 1.7:1 ask, $5.7k/$9.9k within 10¢
UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $1.3k, 3.0× this market's typical big trade
size baseline: 95th pct of 2,910 trades / 7d

Triggers (3)

05 Aug 2026, 02:05 UTC: Sustained reprice: 64¢ → 69¢ (+5.0pts), confirmed over 115s
05 Aug 2026, 02:10 UTC: Sustained reprice: 69¢ → 74¢ (+5.0pts), confirmed over 60s
05 Aug 2026, 02:25 UTC: Sustained reprice: 74¢ → 68¢ (-5.5pts), confirmed over 57s

Context

Opening move ≈ 0.15× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time