US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -1.0pts: 70¢ at window start → 69¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 65¢ (band 14¢–65¢)
  band from 160 hourly obs / 6.9d
• VOLUME 2.9× this market's 7-day norm, $148.4k in 24h
• BOOK Book 4.1:1 ask, $2.0k/$7.9k within 10¢
  depth from the 18:03 UTC snapshot (no close reading)
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $3.5k, 8.9× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 3,651 trades / 7d

DEPTH PENDING · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (2)

• 05 Aug 2026, 16:58 UTC: Sustained reprice: 70¢ → 67¢ (-3.5pts), confirmed over 123s
• 05 Aug 2026, 17:18 UTC: Sustained reprice: 67¢ → 71¢ (+4.0pts), confirmed over 32s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.07× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 24 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 67¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 71¢, held -1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +3.5pts
• Held 29% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 69¢
• Graded from 35 snapshots