US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?
Window 05 Aug 2026, 04:26 UTC → 05 Aug 2026, 05:56 UTC
Price at window start 62¢ → at trigger 66¢
YES up · NO down
Resolves 15 Aug 2026, 23:59 UTC
Live payload
REPRICED Repriced +13.5pts: 62¢ at window start → 76¢ now
OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 53¢ (band 15¢–53¢) band from 164 hourly obs / 7.0d
VOLUME 3.1× this market's 7-day norm, $155.7k in 24h
BOOK Book 1.3:1 bid, $10.6k/$8.2k within 10¢
TIMING First reprice T+29m
UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $2.9k, 7.1× this market's typical big trade size baseline: 95th pct of 3,207 trades / 7d
WIRE Wire: @FirstSquawk T−29m, link confidence 80%: "TRUMP ON IRAN: WILL KNOW IN 48 HOURS
TRUMP ON IRAN: MOVING ALONG VERY NICELY
TRUMP ON IRAN: NEGOTIATIONS WERE GOOD"
Triggers (3)
05 Aug 2026, 04:26 UTC: Sustained reprice: 62¢ → 66¢ (+3.5pts), confirmed over 29s
05 Aug 2026, 04:53 UTC: Sustained reprice: 66¢ → 72¢ (+6.5pts), confirmed over 63s
05 Aug 2026, 05:16 UTC: Sustained reprice: 72¢ → 77¢ (+4.5pts), confirmed over 60s
Context
Opening move ≈ 0.09× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time