Texas Senate winner?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -1.0pts: 54¢ at window start → 53¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 53¢ (band 53¢–56¢)
  band from 168 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 1.5:1 ask, $174.1k/$256.0k within 10¢
  depth from the 23:42 UTC snapshot (no close reading)
• VOLUME 0.9× this market's 7-day norm, $13.4k in 24h

DEPTH PENDING · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 05 Aug 2026, 22:30 UTC: Band breach (lower): 54¢ → 53¢ (-1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.33× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 1 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 53¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 53¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 53¢
• Graded from 47 snapshots