Window 05 Aug 2026, 03:43 UTC → 05 Aug 2026, 05:13 UTC
Price at window start 13¢ → at trigger 10¢ → at close 10¢
YES down · NO up
Frozen payload
REPRICED Repriced -3.0pts: 13¢ at window start → 10¢ at close
OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 18¢ (band 18¢–32¢) band from 160 hourly obs / 7.0d
BOOK Book 3.0:1 bid, $2.8k/$915 within 10¢
TIMING First reprice T+1585m
WIRE Wire: @WatcherGuru T−1585m, link confidence 75%: "JUST IN: Telegram removed from the Apple App Store worldwide. https://t.co/VlYyQ99W73"
WIRE Wire: @unusual_whales T−526m, link confidence 75%: "The CFTC has ordered George Santos to disgorge $17,000 in profit and pay a $17,500 fine for insider trading on a Stat…"
VOLUME 0.8× this market's 7-day norm, $28.8k in 24h
Book 3.0:1 bid, $2.8k/$915 within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢
Triggers (1)
05 Aug 2026, 03:43 UTC: Sustained reprice: 13¢ → 10¢ (-3.0pts), confirmed over 60s
Context
Opening move ≈ 0.22× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
0 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)
Outcome: graded at window close
+2m after alert: 10¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction