REPRICED
FINALISED: FROZEN
Polymarket
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?
Window 05 Aug 2026, 01:41 UTC → 05 Aug 2026, 03:11 UTC
Price at window start 42¢ → at trigger 51¢ → at close 44¢
YES up · NO down
Resolves 31 Oct 2026, 23:59 UTC
Frozen payload
- REPRICED Repriced +2.0pts: 42¢ at window start → 44¢ at close
- OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 54¢ (band 54¢–57¢)
band from 166 hourly obs / 7.0d
- VOLUME 29.1× this market's 7-day norm, $67.8k in 24h
volume from the 03:01 UTC snapshot (no close reading)
- BOOK Book 1.2:1 bid, $3.9k/$3.2k within 10¢
depth from the 03:01 UTC snapshot (no close reading)
- UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $416, 1.7× this market's typical big trade
size baseline: 95th pct of 1,507 trades / 7d
DEPTH PENDING · spread 6.0¢
Triggers (3)
- 05 Aug 2026, 01:41 UTC: Sustained reprice: 42¢ → 51¢ (+8.5pts), confirmed over 123s
- 05 Aug 2026, 02:09 UTC: Sustained reprice: 51¢ → 41¢ (-10.0pts), confirmed over 245s
- 05 Aug 2026, 02:26 UTC: Sustained reprice: 41¢ → 45¢ (+4.0pts), confirmed over 61s
Context
- Opening move ≈ 2.13× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
- 27 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)
Outcome: graded at window close
- +2m after alert: 51¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
- +30m: 41¢, held -1.5ptspts
- Peak move: +9.0pts
- Held 22% of the peak move at close
- Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
- Gave back half within 60m: yes
- Price at close: 44¢
- Graded from 47 snapshots