OUTSIDE BAND
WINDOW OPEN: LIVE
Kalshi
2028 Democratic presidential nominee
Window 05 Aug 2026, 12:04 UTC → 05 Aug 2026, 13:34 UTC
Price at window start 18¢ → at trigger 19¢
YES up · NO down
Resolves 07 Nov 2028, 15:00 UTC
Live payload
- REPRICED Repriced +1.0pts: 18¢ at window start → 19¢ now
- OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 18¢ (band 15¢–18¢)
band from 168 hourly obs / 7.0d
- BOOK Book 2.7:1 ask, $24.0k/$64.2k within 10¢
- UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $95, 1.1× this market's typical big trade
size baseline: 95th pct of 1,898 trades / 7d
- VOLUME 1.4× this market's 7-day norm, $7.5k in 24h
Triggers (1)
- 05 Aug 2026, 12:04 UTC: Band breach (upper): 18¢ → 19¢ (+1.0pts), confirmed over 259s
Context
- Opening move ≈ 0.33× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time