OUTSIDE BAND
WINDOW OPEN: LIVE
Kalshi
2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
Window 05 Aug 2026, 04:20 UTC → 05 Aug 2026, 05:50 UTC
Price at window start 45¢ → at trigger 43¢
YES down · NO up
Resolves 01 Feb 2027, 15:00 UTC
Live payload
- REPRICED Repriced -2.0pts: 45¢ at window start → 43¢ now
- OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 43¢ (band 43¢–46¢)
band from 168 hourly obs / 7.0d
- VOLUME 11.5× this market's 7-day norm, $45.4k in 24h
- BOOK Book 1.5:1 ask, $34.3k/$52.8k within 10¢
Triggers (1)
- 05 Aug 2026, 04:20 UTC: Band breach (lower): 45¢ → 43¢ (-2.0pts), confirmed over 274s
Context
- Opening move ≈ 0.67× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time