Window 04 Aug 2026, 11:52 UTC → 04 Aug 2026, 13:22 UTC
Price at window start 21¢ → at trigger 20¢ → at close 20¢
YES down · NO up
Resolves 31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC
Frozen payload
REPRICED Repriced -1.0pts: 21¢ at window start → 20¢ at close
OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 20¢ (band 20¢–26¢) band from 163 hourly obs / 6.9d
BOOK Book 1.7:1 bid, $361.5k/$212.5k within 10¢
TIMING First reprice T+1100m
UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $16.3k, 13.0× this market's typical big trade size baseline: 95th pct of 4,250 trades / 7d
WIRE Wire: @unusual_whales T−474m, link confidence 95%: "The U.S. and Israel initiated military actions against Iran in February 2026, aiming to dismantle Iran's missile capa…"
WIRE Wire: @unusual_whales T−55m, link confidence 90%: "Moroccan King Mohammed VI said his decision to give Donald Trump’s name to a $1 billion highway that crosses into the…"
VOLUME 0.5× this market's 7-day norm, $476.2k in 24h
Book 1.7:1 bid, $361.5k/$212.5k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢
Triggers (1)
04 Aug 2026, 11:52 UTC: Band breach (lower): 21¢ → 20¢ (-1.0pts), confirmed over 61s
Context
Opening move ≈ 0.2× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
29 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)
Outcome: graded at window close
+2m after alert: 20¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction