Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -4.5pts: 53¢ at window start → 49¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 53¢ (band 53¢–65¢)
  band from 167 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 2.6× this market's 7-day norm, $4.1k in 24h
  volume from the 16:11 UTC snapshot (no close reading)
• BOOK Book 3.6:1 ask, $1.9k/$7.0k within 10¢
• TIMING First reprice T+272m
• WIRE Wire: @nicktimiraos T−100m, link confidence 90%: "@IrvingSwisher The reaction function is getting communicated by the committee, even though the chair has declined to …"
• WIRE Wire: @zerohedge T−272m, link confidence 75%: "BOJ Data Shows No Clear Sign of Large-Scale Intervention Monday Meanwhile USDJPY now back to 158, up almost 300 pips…"

Book 3.6:1 ask, $1.9k/$7.0k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 04 Aug 2026, 14:50 UTC: Band breach (lower): 53¢ → 48¢ (-5.5pts), confirmed over 215s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.44× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 1 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 48¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 49¢, held +4.5ptspts
• Peak move: +5.5pts
• Held 82% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 49¢
• Graded from 35 snapshots