Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?
Window 04 Aug 2026, 14:55 UTC → 04 Aug 2026, 16:25 UTC
Price at window start 64¢ → at trigger 63¢ → at close 63¢
YES down · NO up
Resolves 28 Oct 2026, 23:59 UTC
Frozen payload
REPRICED Repriced -1.5pts: 64¢ at window start → 63¢ at close
OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 63¢ (band 63¢–73¢) band from 166 hourly obs / 7.0d
VOLUME 2.9× this market's 7-day norm, $7.0k in 24h volume from the 16:11 UTC snapshot (no close reading)
BOOK Book 1.3:1 ask, $1.9k/$2.6k within 10¢
TIMING First reprice T+1279m
WIRE Wire: @DeItaone T−1279m, link confidence 90%: "CITADEL WARNS FED MESSAGING IS HURTING CREDIBILITY
Citadel Securities said Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's policy framework …"
WIRE Wire: @DeItaone T−360m, link confidence 85%: "WARSH'S FED STRATEGY COULD WEAKEN THE DOLLAR
Kevin Warsh's approach to monetary policy could hurt the U.S. dollar ov…"
Book 1.3:1 ask, $1.9k/$2.6k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢
Triggers (1)
04 Aug 2026, 14:55 UTC: Band breach (lower): 64¢ → 63¢ (-1.5pts), confirmed over 48s
Context
Opening move ≈ 0.16× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
1 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)
Outcome: graded at window close
+2m after alert: 63¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction