Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -3.5pts: 57¢ at window start → 54¢ at close
• BOOK Book 4.6:1 ask, $2.2k/$10.0k within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.6× this market's 7-day norm, $972 in 24h

Book 4.6:1 ask, $2.2k/$10.0k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 04 Aug 2026, 12:10 UTC: Sustained reprice: 57¢ → 54¢ (-3.5pts), confirmed over 58s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.28× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 1 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 54¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 54¢, held +3.5ptspts
• Peak move: +3.5pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 54¢
• Graded from 116 snapshots