OUTSIDE BAND
WINDOW OPEN: LIVE
Polymarket
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Window 04 Aug 2026, 19:25 UTC → 04 Aug 2026, 20:55 UTC
Price at window start 27¢ → at trigger 26¢
YES down · NO up
Resolves 30 Sept 2026, 00:00 UTC
Live payload
- REPRICED Repriced -0.6pts: 27¢ at window start → 26¢ now
- OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 26¢ (band 26¢–35¢)
band from 168 hourly obs / 7.0d
- BOOK Book 5.8:1 ask, $1.4k/$8.1k within 10¢
- VOLUME 0.3× this market's 7-day norm, $2.3k in 24h
Triggers (1)
- 04 Aug 2026, 19:25 UTC: Band breach (lower): 27¢ → 26¢ (-0.6pts), confirmed over 123s
Context
- Opening move ≈ 0.07× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time