REPRICED WINDOW OPEN: LIVE Polymarket

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?

Window 04 Aug 2026, 13:26 UTC → 04 Aug 2026, 14:56 UTC

Price at window start 64¢ → at trigger 72¢

YES up · NO down

Live payload

REPRICED Repriced +4.0pts: 64¢ at window start → 68¢ now
OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 60¢ (band 9¢–60¢)
band from 155 hourly obs / 7.0d
BOOK Book 1.3:1 bid, $39.5k/$30.3k within 10¢
UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $3.6k, 5.3× this market's typical big trade
size baseline: 95th pct of 8,515 trades / 7d

Triggers (1)

04 Aug 2026, 13:26 UTC: Sustained reprice: 64¢ → 72¢ (+8.0pts), confirmed over 59s

Context

Opening move ≈ 0.16× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time