US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +4.0pts: 59¢ at window start → 63¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 60¢ (band 9¢–60¢)
  band from 155 hourly obs / 6.9d
• BOOK Book 1.1:1 ask, $10.6k/$11.4k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $6.3k, 9.2× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 8,464 trades / 7d
• VOLUME $316.6k in 24h (7-day norm still forming)
  volume summed from the market's own trade tape

Book 1.1:1 ask, $10.6k/$11.4k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 04 Aug 2026, 10:51 UTC: Band breach (upper): 59¢ → 60¢ (+1.5pts), confirmed over 60s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.03× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 62 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 62¢, drift +1.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 60¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +4.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no data
• Price at close: 63¢
• Graded from 96 snapshots