US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +7.0pts: 41¢ at window start → 48¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 47¢ (band 32¢–47¢)
  band from 162 hourly obs / 6.9d
• BOOK Book 12.7:1 bid, $6.5k/$512 within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $471, 1.4× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 1,618 trades / 7d
• VOLUME $17.4k in 24h (7-day norm still forming)
  volume summed from the market's own trade tape

Book 12.7:1 bid, $6.5k/$512 within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (2)

• 04 Aug 2026, 11:55 UTC: Sustained reprice: 41¢ → 46¢ (+5.5pts), confirmed over 30s
• 04 Aug 2026, 12:57 UTC: Band breach (upper): 46¢ → 48¢ (+2.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.33× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 19 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 47¢, drift +0.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 46¢, held +5.5ptspts
• Peak move: +8.5pts
• Held 82% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: no data
• Price at close: 48¢
• Graded from 113 snapshots