US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +2.5pts: 51¢ at window start → 53¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 47¢ (band 32¢–47¢)
  band from 161 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 3.2:1 bid, $7.9k/$2.5k within 10¢
  depth from the 22:12 UTC snapshot (no close reading)
• VOLUME $11.2k in 24h (7-day norm still forming)
  volume summed from the market's own trade tape

DEPTH PENDING · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 04 Aug 2026, 20:47 UTC: Sustained reprice: 51¢ → 54¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 90s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.2× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 14 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 55¢, drift +1.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 52¢, held +1.5ptspts
• Peak move: +4.0pts
• Held 63% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 53¢
• Graded from 51 snapshots