Window 04 Aug 2026, 17:39 UTC → 04 Aug 2026, 19:09 UTC
Price at window start 52¢ → at trigger 56¢ → at close 55¢
YES up · NO down
Resolves 31 Aug 2026, 23:59 UTC
Frozen payload
REPRICED Repriced +3.0pts: 52¢ at window start → 55¢ at close
OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 47¢ (band 32¢–47¢) band from 161 hourly obs / 6.9d
BOOK Book 1.6:1 bid, $6.6k/$4.1k within 10¢
TIMING First reprice T+1260m
UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $719, 2.2× this market's typical big trade size baseline: 95th pct of 1,688 trades / 7d
WIRE Wire: @zerohedge T−1260m, link confidence 80%: "Zelensky: We Seek To End War By Winter Through Escalation On Military, Diplomatic Fronts https://t.co/yKOTQCueDm"
WIRE Wire: @financialjuice T−441m, link confidence 80%: "Qatar's foreign ministry spokesperson on US-Iran talks: efforts ongoing with all parties, seeking diplomatic solution"
VOLUME $12.1k in 24h (7-day norm still forming) volume summed from the market's own trade tape
Book 1.6:1 bid, $6.6k/$4.1k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢
Triggers (1)
04 Aug 2026, 17:39 UTC: Sustained reprice: 52¢ → 56¢ (+4.0pts), confirmed over 108s
Context
Opening move ≈ 0.27× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
5 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)
Outcome: graded at window close
+2m after alert: 53¢, drift -2.5pts in the alert direction