OUTSIDE BAND
WINDOW OPEN: LIVE
Polymarket
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?
Window 04 Aug 2026, 14:27 UTC → 04 Aug 2026, 15:57 UTC
Price at window start 47¢ → at trigger 48¢
YES up · NO down
Resolves 31 Aug 2026, 23:59 UTC
Live payload
- REPRICED Repriced +1.5pts: 47¢ at window start → 49¢ now
- OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 47¢ (band 32¢–47¢)
band from 162 hourly obs / 6.9d
- BOOK Book 7.8:1 bid, $8.0k/$1.0k within 10¢
- TIMING First reprice T+164m
- WIRE Wire: @DeItaone T−164m, link confidence 70%: "BESSENT: WE MAY HAVE IRAN DEAL TOMORROW TO OPEN HORMUZ -CNBC INTERVIEW"
Triggers (1)
- 04 Aug 2026, 14:27 UTC: Band breach (upper): 47¢ → 48¢ (+0.5pts), confirmed over 341s
Context
- Opening move ≈ 0.03× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time