OUTSIDE BAND WINDOW OPEN: LIVE Polymarket

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?

Window 04 Aug 2026, 13:11 UTC → 04 Aug 2026, 14:41 UTC

Price at window start 35¢ → at trigger 36¢

YES up · NO down

Resolves 30 Sept 2026, 23:59 UTC

Live payload

REPRICED Repriced +1.0pts: 35¢ at window start → 36¢ now
OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 35¢ (band 28¢–35¢)
band from 166 hourly obs / 7.0d
UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $1.4k, 1.4× this market's typical big trade
size baseline: 95th pct of 1,188 trades / 7d

DEPTH PENDING

04 Aug 2026, 13:11 UTC: Band breach (upper): 35¢ → 36¢ (+1.0pts), confirmed over 30s