US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +1.0pts: 45¢ at window start → 46¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 46¢ (band 15¢–46¢)
  band from 164 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 2.2× this market's 7-day norm, $103.9k in 24h
• BOOK Book 2.4:1 bid, $9.4k/$3.9k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $1.5k, 3.0× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 2,318 trades / 7d

Book 2.4:1 bid, $9.4k/$3.9k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (3)

• 04 Aug 2026, 08:06 UTC: Band breach (upper): 45¢ → 46¢ (+1.0pts), confirmed over 100s
• 04 Aug 2026, 08:38 UTC: Sustained reprice: 46¢ → 51¢ (+5.0pts), confirmed over 60s
• 04 Aug 2026, 09:20 UTC: Sustained reprice: 51¢ → 47¢ (-4.0pts), confirmed over 76s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.03× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 22 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 46¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 50¢, held +5.0ptspts
• Peak move: +6.0pts
• Held 17% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 46¢
• Graded from 66 snapshots