OUTSIDE BAND
WINDOW OPEN: LIVE
Polymarket
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?
Window 04 Aug 2026, 10:04 UTC → 04 Aug 2026, 11:34 UTC
Price at window start 45¢ → at trigger 47¢
YES up · NO down
Resolves 15 Aug 2026, 23:59 UTC
Live payload
- REPRICED Repriced +6.0pts: 45¢ at window start → 51¢ now
- OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 46¢ (band 15¢–46¢)
band from 164 hourly obs / 7.0d
- VOLUME 2.2× this market's 7-day norm, $101.7k in 24h
- BOOK Book 1.4:1 bid, $9.9k/$7.1k within 10¢
- UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $945, 2.0× this market's typical big trade
size baseline: 95th pct of 2,318 trades / 7d
Triggers (2)
- 04 Aug 2026, 10:04 UTC: Band breach (upper): 45¢ → 47¢ (+2.5pts), confirmed over 70s
- 04 Aug 2026, 11:19 UTC: Sustained reprice: 47¢ → 51¢ (+3.5pts), confirmed over 60s
Context
- Opening move ≈ 0.08× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time