US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -2.5pts: 49¢ at window start → 46¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 46¢ (band 15¢–46¢)
  band from 165 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 1.7:1 bid, $8.4k/$5.0k within 10¢
• VOLUME 1.8× this market's 7-day norm, $79.9k in 24h

Book 1.7:1 bid, $8.4k/$5.0k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (2)

• 04 Aug 2026, 01:43 UTC: Sustained reprice: 49¢ → 45¢ (-4.0pts), confirmed over 144s
• 04 Aug 2026, 01:48 UTC: Band breach (upper): 45¢ → 47¢ (+2.0pts), confirmed over 51s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.13× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 201 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 47¢, drift -2.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 48¢, held +0.5ptspts
• Peak move: +4.0pts
• Held 62% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 46¢
• Graded from 49 snapshots