Next Fed rate hike?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -1.0pts: 65¢ at window start → 64¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 64¢ (band 64¢–72¢)
  band from 167 hourly obs / 6.9d
• VOLUME 2.0× this market's 7-day norm, $15.5k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.9:1 bid, $38.5k/$20.1k within 10¢

Book 1.9:1 bid, $38.5k/$20.1k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 04 Aug 2026, 16:25 UTC: Band breach (lower): 65¢ → 64¢ (-1.0pts), confirmed over 421s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.13× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 1 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 64¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 64¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 64¢
• Graded from 51 snapshots