OUTSIDE BAND WINDOW OPEN: LIVE Polymarket

Israel closes its airspace by August 31?

Window 04 Aug 2026, 10:01 UTC → 04 Aug 2026, 11:31 UTC

Price at window start 19¢ → at trigger 19¢

YES down · NO up

Live payload

REPRICED Repriced -0.5pts: 19¢ at window start → 19¢ now
OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 19¢ (band 19¢–31¢)
band from 161 hourly obs / 7.0d
BOOK Book 2.1:1 bid, $6.4k/$3.0k within 10¢
VOLUME 0.8× this market's 7-day norm, $31.3k in 24h

Triggers (1)

04 Aug 2026, 10:01 UTC: Band breach (lower): 19¢ → 19¢ (-0.5pts), confirmed over 110s

Context

Opening move ≈ 0.04× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time