Israel closes its airspace by August 31?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -2.0pts: 20¢ at window start → 18¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 19¢ (band 19¢–31¢)
  band from 163 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 6.3:1 bid, $6.2k/$985 within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.8× this market's 7-day norm, $32.1k in 24h

Book 6.3:1 bid, $6.2k/$985 within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 04 Aug 2026, 02:01 UTC: Band breach (lower): 20¢ → 19¢ (-1.0pts), confirmed over 84s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.08× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 0 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 19¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 19¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +2.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no data
• Price at close: 18¢
• Graded from 58 snapshots