Israel closes its airspace by August 31?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -0.5pts: 19¢ at window start → 19¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 19¢ (band 19¢–31¢)
  band from 162 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 1.9:1 bid, $5.7k/$3.0k within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.8× this market's 7-day norm, $31.4k in 24h

Book 1.9:1 bid, $5.7k/$3.0k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 04 Aug 2026, 07:58 UTC: Band breach (lower): 19¢ → 19¢ (-0.5pts), confirmed over 112s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.04× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 1 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 19¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 19¢, held +0.5ptspts
• Peak move: +0.5pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 19¢
• Graded from 71 snapshots