Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.0pts: 56¢ at window start → 56¢ at close
• VOLUME 14.8× this market's 7-day norm, $32.7k in 24h
• BOOK Book 4.5:1 bid, $5.1k/$1.1k within 10¢

Book 4.5:1 bid, $5.1k/$1.1k within 10¢ · spread 3.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 04 Aug 2026, 08:05 UTC: Band breach (upper): 56¢ → 57¢ (+1.0pts), confirmed over 60s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.29× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 1 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 57¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 57¢, held +0.5ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 0% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 56¢
• Graded from 67 snapshots