REPRICED WINDOW OPEN: LIVE Polymarket

Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?

Window 04 Aug 2026, 19:21 UTC → 04 Aug 2026, 20:51 UTC

Price at window start 70¢ → at trigger 65¢

YES down · NO up

Resolves 31 Oct 2026, 23:59 UTC

Live payload

REPRICED Repriced -24.5pts: 70¢ at window start → 45¢ now
OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 54¢ (band 54¢–57¢)
band from 166 hourly obs / 7.0d
VOLUME 24.1× this market's 7-day norm, $56.1k in 24h
BOOK Book 6.4:1 ask, $734/$4.7k within 10¢
UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $1.6k, 6.4× this market's typical big trade
size baseline: 95th pct of 1,507 trades / 7d

Triggers (5)

04 Aug 2026, 19:21 UTC: Sustained reprice: 70¢ → 65¢ (-5.0pts), confirmed over 23s
04 Aug 2026, 19:30 UTC: Sustained reprice: 65¢ → 61¢ (-4.0pts), confirmed over 89s
04 Aug 2026, 19:42 UTC: Sustained reprice: 61¢ → 54¢ (-7.0pts), confirmed over 60s
04 Aug 2026, 20:13 UTC: Band breach (lower): 54¢ → 51¢ (-3.0pts), confirmed over 190s
04 Aug 2026, 20:21 UTC: Sustained reprice: 51¢ → 48¢ (-3.0pts), confirmed over 51s

Context

Opening move ≈ 1.25× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time