Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -0.5pts: 56¢ at window start → 56¢ at close
• VOLUME 13.7× this market's 7-day norm, $29.5k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.5:1 ask, $2.4k/$3.5k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $3.4k, 9.0× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 1,496 trades / 7d

Book 1.5:1 ask, $2.4k/$3.5k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (2)

• 04 Aug 2026, 00:55 UTC: Band breach (lower): 56¢ → 52¢ (-4.5pts), confirmed over 288s
• 04 Aug 2026, 01:10 UTC: Sustained reprice: 52¢ → 57¢ (+6.0pts), confirmed over 91s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 1.13× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 13 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 52¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 56¢, held +0.0ptspts
• Peak move: +4.5pts
• Held 11% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 56¢
• Graded from 45 snapshots