Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +2.0pts: 66¢ at window start → 68¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 57¢ (band 54¢–57¢)
  band from 167 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 17.5× this market's 7-day norm, $40.9k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.2:1 bid, $7.0k/$5.7k within 10¢

Book 1.2:1 bid, $7.0k/$5.7k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 04 Aug 2026, 17:20 UTC: Sustained reprice: 66¢ → 71¢ (+4.5pts), confirmed over 60s

Context artifact

@DeItaone · X: posted 1h 20m before the break

IRAN MAY ALLOW EUROPE TO CLEAR HORMUZ MINES Iran is reportedly considering allowing European countries to clear mines in the Strait of Hormuz, a potential concession that could help restore shipping and revive U.S.-Iran peace talks. The proposal remains under discussion and would require Iranian security guarantees, a durable ceasefire, and approval from the IRGC. However, Iran continues to insist on controlling the strait and collecting transit fees, a key point of disagreement with the U.S.

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Shown as timing context from the sources TruthPing watches. Its appearance near the move is an observation, not an explanation.

Context

• Opening move ≈ 1.29× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 6 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 70¢, drift -0.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 72¢, held +6.0ptspts
• Peak move: +6.5pts
• Held 31% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 68¢
• Graded from 48 snapshots