REPRICED WINDOW OPEN: LIVE Polymarket

Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?

Window 04 Aug 2026, 14:33 UTC → 04 Aug 2026, 16:03 UTC

Price at window start 75¢ → at trigger 70¢

YES down · NO up

Resolves 31 Oct 2026, 23:59 UTC

Live payload

REPRICED Repriced -10.0pts: 75¢ at window start → 65¢ now
OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 57¢ (band 54¢–57¢)
band from 167 hourly obs / 7.0d
VOLUME 16.5× this market's 7-day norm, $38.4k in 24h
BOOK Book 2.3:1 bid, $10.8k/$4.7k within 10¢
UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $1.4k, 3.6× this market's typical big trade
size baseline: 95th pct of 1,485 trades / 7d

04 Aug 2026, 14:33 UTC: Sustained reprice: 75¢ → 70¢ (-5.5pts), confirmed over 162s
04 Aug 2026, 14:50 UTC: Sustained reprice: 70¢ → 66¢ (-4.0pts), confirmed over 215s

@financialjuice · X: posted 29 min before the break

US Secretary of State Rubio: There's been progress made in talks with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Shown as timing context from the sources TruthPing watches. Its appearance near the move is an observation, not an explanation.