Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -2.5pts: 62¢ at window start → 59¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 60¢ (band 60¢–73¢)
  band from 168 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 1.9× this market's 7-day norm, $15.1k in 24h
  volume from the 16:11 UTC snapshot (no close reading)
• BOOK Book 1.0:1 bid, $15.0k/$14.9k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $354, 1.7× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 1,190 trades / 7d

Book 1.0:1 bid, $15.0k/$14.9k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 04 Aug 2026, 14:52 UTC: Band breach (lower): 62¢ → 58¢ (-3.5pts), confirmed over 121s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.29× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 6 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 60¢, drift -1.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 60¢, held +2.0ptspts
• Peak move: +3.5pts
• Held 71% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 59¢
• Graded from 34 snapshots