Cuban regime falls in 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -2.5pts: 12¢ at window start → 9¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 11¢ (band 11¢–14¢)
  band from 168 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 8.4× this market's 7-day norm, $6.1k in 24h
• BOOK Book 2.3:1 bid, $1.6k/$701 within 10¢

Book 2.3:1 bid, $1.6k/$701 within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 04 Aug 2026, 15:44 UTC: Band breach (lower): 12¢ → 10¢ (-2.0pts), confirmed over 57s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.67× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 4 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 10¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 10¢, held +2.0ptspts
• Peak move: +3.0pts
• Held 83% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 9¢
• Graded from 40 snapshots