OUTSIDE BAND
WINDOW OPEN: LIVE
Polymarket
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Window 03 Aug 2026, 07:31 UTC → 03 Aug 2026, 09:01 UTC
Price at window start 21¢ → at trigger 20¢
YES down · NO up
Resolves 31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC
Live payload
- REPRICED Repriced -1.0pts: 21¢ at window start → 20¢ now
- OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 20¢ (band 20¢–26¢)
band from 167 hourly obs / 7.0d
DEPTH PENDING
Triggers (1)
- 03 Aug 2026, 07:31 UTC: Band breach (lower): 21¢ → 20¢ (-1.0pts), confirmed over 60s
Context
- Opening move ≈ 0.2× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time